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金灿荣美定点暗杀伊朗将军实际上是无能的表现伊朗伊拉克
2020-01-08 00:15   来源:  www.campusaux.com   评论:0 点击:

金灿荣美定点暗杀伊朗将军实际上是无能的表现伊朗伊拉克2020年1月3日,在美国一次有计划性的对伊拉克巴格达

  2020年1月3日,在美国一次有计划性的对伊拉克巴格达国际机场附近的导弹袭击中,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”领袖苏莱曼尼和伊拉克人民动员组织领导人穆罕迪斯身亡。当天,央视新闻采访了著名国际问题专家金灿荣教授。

On January 3,2020, in a planned U.S. missile attack near Baghdad International Airport in Iraq, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade\" leader Suleimani and Iraqi People's Mobilization Group leader Mohammadis died. On the same day, CCTV News interviewed Professor Jin Canrong, a famous expert on international issues.

  记者:关于苏莱曼尼被美军斩首的新闻,您有什么样的观点?它将会对中东局势、美伊关系,全球局势有什么样的影响?

Reporter: What do you think about the news that Suleimanni was beheaded by the US military? How will it affect the situation in the Middle East, US-Iran relations, and the global situation?

  金灿荣:今天美国用无人机加“地狱火”导弹,在伊拉克巴格达机场刺杀了伊朗圣城旅的领袖苏莱曼尼将军,还有伊拉克什叶派领袖、什叶派民兵也叫“人民动员力量”的领袖,是今年内的一件大事。21世纪第3个10年,也就是2020年刚开年就出现这种比较血腥的事件,不是一个吉兆。

Kim canrong: today, the u.s. droned \"hellfire\" missiles, assassinated the leader of the iranian al-qaeda brigade in iraq's baghdad airport, general suleimani, and iraq's shia leader, the leader of the shia militia, also known as the \"people's mobilization \", is a major event this year. The bloody events of the third decade of the 21st century, in 2020, are not a good omen.

  从正常的逻辑上讲,无论是伊朗的“圣城旅”还是伊拉克什叶派民兵都会采取报复措施,矛盾会有点激化,这对地区稳定应该是非常不利的。

The normal logic is that both iran's al-qaeda brigade and iraq's shia militias will retaliate, and the contradictions will be a little inflamed, which should be very detrimental to regional stability.

  大家都知道圣城旅是伊朗革命卫队一支重要力量,近几年来非常活跃。那么,美国其实最好的办法是谈判。不谈判的话,美国要把这个力量给它遏制住,或者消灭掉才行。仅仅把他的代表人物打掉,只是激化矛盾,解决不了问题,因为苏莱曼尼走了之后,一定会有后面的领袖。伊拉克60%的人口是什叶派,大部分都是亲伊朗的。伊拉克什叶派的军事组织领袖被暗杀,在他们看来是不可容忍的。

The Al-Quds Brigade is known to be an important force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and has been very active in recent years. America's best approach, then, is to negotiate. If it does not negotiate, the United States will have to rein it in or destroy it. Just knocking off his representative figure only inflames the contradiction and doesn't solve the problem, because after Suleimani left, there must be a later leader. Sixty percent of Iraq's population is Shia, most of it pro-Iranian. The assassination of Iraq's Shi'ite military leaders is intolerable to them.

  美国与伊朗的矛盾。尤其是与伊朗激进派的矛盾会上升,美国与伊拉克什叶派民兵的矛盾也会激化。这是从常理上推断,但是未来到底会发生什么事,现在我们还很难预测。中东这个地方事情很难预测,能看到的就是矛盾会上升。

America's contradictions with Iran. In particular, conflicts with Iranian radicals will rise, and conflicts between the United States and Iraq's Shiite militias will intensify. It's common sense, but it's hard to predict what will happen in the future. Things are hard to predict in this part of the Middle East, and what can be seen is the rise of contradictions.

  另外还有一点可以点评一下,美国人处理这个问题的方式比较霸道。我们中国包括一些东方国家,很愿意遇到矛盾就谈,通过某种利益交换、让步来解决问题。这对问题解决比较有利的。但是,美国的方式是用力量碾压人家。力量碾压本身就对矛盾的解决不利,这不是一个很好的解决问题的方式。

Another point to comment on is that Americans are more domineering in their approach to the issue. We in China, including some countries in the East, are willing to talk about conflicts and solve problems through some kind of exchange of interests and concessions. This is more advantageous for problem solving. But America's way is to crush people with power. It is not a good way to solve the problem.

  这种暗杀行效果应该很不好,可能会激发人的愤怒,最好是谈判。军事上彻底压倒对方那也行,因为只是定点暗杀。这不是一个超级大国应该干的事。像以色列这种国家干的话,好像比较正常,因为它比较小,身处众多敌人的包围,用这种手段打一下可以。但美国是个超级大国,不像个领导。对此可以对比蒋介石和毛主席在解放战争当初的较量。毛主席搞思想运动、思想教育。蒋介石直接用一颗子弹把闻一多、李公朴暗杀了,它的政治后果太大了。这个方式不是一个大政治家应该做的。

This kind of assassination should be very bad and may provoke anger, preferably negotiation. It's okay to overwhelm each other militarily, because it's just a targeted assassination. This is not what a superpower should do. A country like Israel seems more normal to do so, because it is small, surrounded by many enemies, and can be fought by this means. But America is a superpower, not a leader. This can be compared to Chiang Kai-shek and Chairman Mao in the war of liberation. Chairman mao engaged in ideological movement and ideological education. Jiang Jieshi directly with a bullet to Wen Yiduo, Li Gongpu assassinated, its political consequences are too big. This is not the way a big politician should be.

  美国解决问题的思路不对,方式更不对。用暗杀的形式对对方进行肉体打击,人家会仿效的。所以,从直觉和逻辑上讲,这肯定会激化美国、伊拉克和伊朗这些重要势力的矛盾,所以中东地区会乱一段时间,今天我们看到国际石油市场已经有反应了。

America's approach to problem-solving is far from right, much more so. If you strike each other physically in the form of an assassination, they will follow suit. So, intuitively and logically, this will certainly inflame the tensions between the important forces of the United States, Iraq, and Iran, so the Middle East will be in disarray for some time, and today we see a reaction in the international oil market.

  油价和黄金价格开始涨了,这对我们就不太有利。因为大家都知道中国是第一大石油进口国,我们开车的成本就要高一点了,很多企业资源进口成本也会增加。我们虽然不是直接相关方,但间接还是有影响。中国企业对油价上涨以及地区动荡要做有一定的准备。

Oil prices and gold prices are starting to rise, which is not very good for us. Because we all know that China is the largest importer of oil, the cost of driving is a little higher, and the import cost of many enterprise resources will increase. Although we are not directly related, we still have an indirect impact. Chinese companies are prepared for higher oil prices and regional unrest.

  记者:有网友说本拉登给我们争取了10年的和平发展的有利时机,阿拉伯世界又给我们争取了10年,这次美国跟伊朗干起来,能不能给中国再创造10年的和平发展时期?会不会从这个角度来讲,反而对中国比较有利?

Reporter: some netizens said bin laden has given us a 10 years of peaceful development of the favorable opportunity, the arab world has given us another 10 years, this time the united states and iran, can we create another 10 years of peaceful development period for china? Will it be better for China from this point of view?

  中国是很大的一个国家,我们所有的战略都还是要从自身出发,就做好自己的事儿。强身健体,内功充沛,这样才可以去应对一切困难。所以我相信我们中国领导人是从这个角度看问题的。关键把自己的事做好,而不是特别指望外部的机遇。

China is a big country. All our strategies should start from ourselves and do our own thing. Physical fitness, full of internal work, so that we can cope with all difficulties. So I believe that our Chinese leaders look at the problem from this point of view. The key is to do your job well, not to expect external opportunities.

  因为从人之常情讲,外面有机会我们也会去抓。作为战略筹划者、政策制定者,肯定首先要立足于国内。凡事把自己搞得很好,搞好经济,加强对现代国家能力建设、治理能力建设,凝聚国内人心,这是万变不离其宗的,这是能解决一切问题的前提。我们在战略策划的时候不要过多指望外部那种没法掌控的机遇,在制定政策的时候要以我为主。但是如果外面有机遇,那肯定要去抓,但具体怎么做,是外交界他们要考虑的。我想我们政府的总原则也还是希望矛盾也是可控的。

Because it's natural that we'll catch it out there if we have a chance. As a strategic planner and policy-maker, we must first base ourselves on the domestic. It is the premise that all problems can be solved by doing well in everything we do, doing well in the economy, strengthening the capacity building of the modern state and strengthening the capacity building for governance and rallying the domestic people. We shouldn't rely too much on the ungovernable opportunities of the outside world when we plan our strategy. But if there's an opportunity out there, it's definitely going to catch it, but what they do is for the diplomatic community to think about it. I think the general principles of our government still hope that the contradiction is also controllable.

  然后对美国这种用武力,用无人机暗杀对方政治人物军事领袖的行为,我觉得应该加以谴责。这是不符合国际公法的。如果大家都仿效的话,势必就是进入战国时代,天下大乱了。天下大乱就无一能够幸免。

Then I think it should be condemned for the use of military force and the use of drones to assassinate military leaders of other political figures. This is incompatible with public international law. If we all follow the example, it is bound to enter the warring States period, the world chaos. All chaos is spared.

  我觉得我们政府对此可以加以谴责,但是也不一定表现得太积极。对这个行为本身加以谴责,然后表达一个立场“希望谈判解决问题,有矛盾大家坐下来谈”。然后长期战略还是着重于加强内功。国际上还要保持基本姿态,即劝谈促和,对那种破坏和平、激化矛盾的行为加以某种谴责。

I think our Government can condemn this, but it is not necessarily too positive. To condemn the act itself, and then to express a position that \"wants to negotiate a solution to the problem, there are contradictions to sit down and talk about \". The long-term strategy then focuses on strengthening internal performance. At the international level, it is also necessary to maintain a basic posture, that is, to talk and promote peace, and to condemn some sort of act that undermines peace and inflames contradictions.

  至少在道德上要谴责。而且我刚才反复讲了若靠暗杀来制约对手,这不是一个超级大国的形象。小国这么做也不对,但是还可以理解。大国这么做其实是一种无能的表现。如果你大国能力特别强,不至于搞这种,我觉得不太体面。所以美国号称是高科技、用无人机发远程火箭打的,本质上还是暗杀行为。跟刺客远远地狙击枪把你打死其实是一样的。因素虽然有点现代,本质是一样的。违反国际法不说,就从身份上来讲,美国作为超级大国,这件事情做得很不体面的。

At least morally. And I've just repeated that it's not an image of a superpower to rely on assassination to restrict its opponents. Small countries are not doing the right thing, but understandably. It's a sign of incompetence for big powers to do so. I don't think it's decent if you're too big for that. So the United States claims to be a high-tech, long-range drone rocket hit, essentially an assassination attempt. It's the same as an assassin's sniper gun that killed you. Although the factors are somewhat modern, the essence is the same. In violation of international law, as a matter of identity, the United States as a superpower, this matter has done very unseemly.


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